Introduction
This post looks at the current state of investigations into a possible railway station for Devizes. The idea has been around since at least 1989, when I came to Devizes as head of the Local Planning team for the then Kennet District Council. At that time Network Rail consistently argued that it would not be possible to add another stop on the line without disrupting rail freight (mainly stone) or causing delays to existing services.
Current Context
In January 2020 the Secretary for State for Transport announced a £500m fund with the specific purpose of re-opening closed railways and stations. The Restoring Your Railway fund included a facility for local authorities and other promoters to submit early stage proposals for reopening lines and stations, with successful applicants receiving grants to undertake the development of early stage feasibility and business case work.
The Devizes proposal is only one of many submitted across the country. You can read more about them in these three blog posts:
Ten ideas for restoring railways
15 more rails restorations reviewed
In Wiltshire alone, proposals exist for new stations at Corsham (funding granted for a study similar to Devizes), Royal Wootton Bassett and Wilton. There are other less well-developed proposals too. Find out more here: https://transwilts.org/view-our-rail-network/
Wiltshire Council, together with the Devizes Development Partnership (DDP), were successful in securing a grant for a feasibility study into the opening of a new station serving Devizes and its environs. In early 2021, Atkins were appointed by Wiltshire Council to undertake an early stage feasibility and business case assessment of the scheme. The key aim was to prepare a Strategic Outline Case (SOC) consistent with the Restoring Your Railway fund guidance, that can establish whether:
- Restoring rail connectivity is likely to be a strategic fit with local and national policy;
- There is a demonstrated case or need for intervention; and
- Reopening the station is technically feasible and economically viable.
The Atkins report is only the first stage in a three stage process, shown in the diagram below which is taken from the report. As a result of that first report, funding has now been approved to move to the next stage.
Find the full text of the report here. Be aware. This is a download of a word processor file with 180 pages and 28MB in size! It is not availble in HTML format.
Summary of proposals considered in the SOC.
- Creation of a new station at Lydeway, about 5.5 km from Devizes Town Centre, on the Reading to Taunton Great Western Main Line between Pewsey and Westbury.
- The unmanned station would consist of two platforms, a footbridge, ticket machine facilities, a car park, taxi rank and a bus interchange.
- The station would be integrated into the local bus network, and is also proposed to be connected directly to Devizes Town Centre via an express shuttle bus.
- The station would be served by extending the hourly London Paddington to Bedwyn service on to Westbury, providing Devizes Gateway with hourly direct services to destinations such as Westbury, Bedwyn, Newbury, Reading, and London.
- To allow such a service to operate without interfering with other timetabled passenger or freight services, the construction of a passing loop near Bedwyn and a new platform at Westbury would also be required.
- The technical challenge of finding a path through existing services will be significant.
- Costs of the station and associated works at Bedwyn and Westbury have been estimated at around £48m. Operating costs are estimated to be £1.75m per annum.
Comments
Viability
Despite approval being given to progress the scheme to the next stage, there are still significant issues to be resolved. It is clear that the problem of finding a path through the existing schedules, still remains. Without a resolution that caters for both current traffic levels and aspirations for the future, particularly to grow freight traffic on the line, all other considerations fall by the wayside. This will be addressed in the Stage Two study, the Outline Business Case.
The other major issue is that assessments of the viability of the scheme are highly sensitive to the original assumptions. Indeed, against the baseline assumptions the scheme was rated as Low by the consultants. Running the assessment against a range of assumptions produced ratings from Not Value for Money to Very High. If the scheme is to progress past the next stage it will be essential that these assumptions are put on a much firmer footing.
Passenger Levels
One key assumption is the number of passengers through the station. The report uses a baseline figure of 350,000 users per annum. While instinctively this feels high for a town the size of Devizes, the usage at Pewsey is around 260,000, so it is clearly feasible. It is derived however, not from survey data, but from analysis of demand and trip rates at other local stations and applying these trip rates to the catchment area of Devizes. The report acknowledges that approach has significant limitations which may mean this is an overestimate of demand.
- The station would probably have a much lower frequency of service and a much smaller set of destinations than other stations in the region.
- The analysis is based on catchment areas defined by car and public transport journey times. It is difficult to assess the impact of the relative accessibility and the differing fares and train services from alternative stations.
- It is difficult to assess the effect of trip substitution – a significant proportion of any demand at Devizes is likely to be journeys that would otherwise have been made from an alternative station.
- A high proportion of current users access the rail network by car. For these people a station at Devizes may not give significant savings in time.
These uncertainties about level of use are important since, as the report acknowledges, the viability of the station proposal is highly sensitive to the initial assumptions. A 20% reduction in forecast demand can move the scheme from low to poor value for money, while a 20% increase in forecast demand can move the scheme to very high.
The baseline scenario assumes that demand grows in line with national population growth. Testing against a rate of ±2% shifts the scheme from low to poor at the bottom end and to medium at the top. A similar picture emerges from all the other sensitivity tests.
The report only considered variations from the baseline assumptions singly. This is unlikely in reality. Some are linked – for example a reduction in passenger numbers would also be likely to lead to a decrease in revenue. Given the uncertainty in the original assumptions, the consultants, unsurprisingly, have not tested them in combination. More robust sensitivity testing will be an essential component of the Stage 2 study.
Journey Purpose
The report acknowledges that the data used to make the projection takes no account of the purpose of journeys people are making. The pattern of journeys will vary between stations. In general, shorter journeys to local destinations are likely to be more frequent, whether for commuting, education or other reasons, than longer distance trips. The suggestion made is that users from Devizes will however mainly be making longer journeys to direct destinations on the GWR network such as London. This will have an impact on overall levels of use and probably on revenue.
The report assumes a distribution of journey purpose as follows, based on the pattern at Pewsey.
- Commute 43.4%
- Business 7.8%
- Leisure 48.7%.
With some other assumptions about the number of trips/year, it is possible to estimate the number of individuals these trips represent.
- Commuter trips – assuming a five day week and 25 days leave gives 235 travelling days.
- Leisure trips – assumed five/year
- Business trips – assumed 12 per year.
Based on 350,000 users/year as set out in the report.
| % | Annual Trips | Two way journeys | |
| Commute | 43.40% | 151900 | 75950 |
| Leisure | 48.70% | 170450 | 85225 |
| Business | 7.80% | 27300 | 13650 |
The number of two way journeys in each category divided by the days travelled/head gives an estimate of the number of individuals likely to use the station.
| Days travelled | Individuals | |
| Commute | 235 | 323 |
| Leisure | 5 | 17045 |
| Business | 12 | 1138 |
| 18506 |
The numbers shown are, with the exception of the leisure trips, remarkably small. As the report makes clear, changes to travel to work patterns post-COVID19 could potentially have a significant impact on these numbers and hence on revenue. If 50% of the commute trips became one or two trips a week instead of five, there would be a significant drop in the number of journeys. If they were to fall to the level of the assumptions made about business trips it could well undermine the viability of the station. Rail and bus companies are beginning to introduce trip based rather than duration based season tickets, so they presumably expect this trend to continue.
Without substantial leisure use, the station would almost certainly not be viable. Sensitivity testing of lower visitor numbers was not directly carried out. The estimate of leisure visitors is however the most problematic component of the overall estimate, based as it is on Pewsey. Leisure trips through Pewsey seem most likely to be outgoing. The proposed Devizes station is however in part intended to provide a trigger for growth in visitor numbers, which implies that a substantial proportion will be incoming. I have been unable to find any online visitor statistics for Devizes, but visitor numbers for Wiltshire overall had been increasing steadily pre-COVID19. To maintain or increase the numbers implied by the passenger estimates would require sustained marketing with associated revenue costs, not included in this report.
Local people using the line for leisure trips out would probably make multiple trips over a year. Incoming visitors will probably make only one or two. Making further assumptions about the balance between inward and outward trips would be unreliable without actual data. Reducing uncertainty in this critical area should be an essential part of the next stage study.
Destinations
As the report makes clear, trips to destinations not serviced by the Exeter to Paddington line would not benefit from a station at Lydeway. Those other destinations would remain best accessed via other stations in the area. Public transport access to those other stations is generally poor, not just from Devizes. The report assumes a 60:40 split between car users and bus users accessing the station. Achieving that will require significant restructuring of the local network. It is difficult to see how a single shuttle bus from the Market Place would have much impact.
Much has been made on social media by members and others about improving access to educational facilities. The station will however have a minimal impact on this, especially in relation to Bath or Bristol, where journey times would be increased if accessed via Devizes. A station for Devizes, when coupled with the full opening of the Elizabeth Line, does seem likely to improve direct access from the west to destinations within the Greater London area, without the need to change at Paddington. The second stage study will also be considering improvements at Westbury which may offer an opportunity to improve journey times from Devizes to Bath and Bristol. Access to Swindon or Corsham (where there is a significant campus for the University of Bath as well as a large MOD presence) is unlikely to be improved.
Overall, a station seems likely to lead to an increase in out-commuting, but has the capacity to trigger an increase in tourist visits inwards.
Development pressures
These are not considered directly in the report. However, examples from across the country clearly show that enhanced rail access usually triggers an increase in house prices and pressure for new development. This is a strategic issue and should have been given consideration, even at this early stage.
Such pressure could arise in several ways.
- By improving outward links, the desirability of the general area as a place to live will be enhanced. In part this is indeed one of the objectives of the project. This is likely to exert an upward pressure on house prices, already well above the national average. Such upward pressure will be especially noticed in the nearby villages such as Urchfont.
- The prospect of easy access to a mainline station, especially with access to London, will inevitably increase pressure for new development in the area.
- Additional housing development in any form will result in extra pressure on local infrastructure in the form of schools, health facilities etc.
The next stage of the study should also cover the planning policy response to these pressures. The council could of course continue to oppose all greenfield sites not complying with current policy. It could however use the opportunity to review those policies in the light of the proposed station, perhaps even to the extent of promoting significant new development, perhaps even a new village. The form of development does not of course have to be limited to housing. Offices, research facilities, further and higher education uses could all benefit from improved access. New housing development appears to be an important component of the proposed Wilton Station, although closer to the existing town than is the case here.
Alternatives
The study was commissioned to look at the case for a Devizes Station. However, even at the strategic level, it is important to consider alternatives to the investment required. The report makes reference to alternatives, in a particular improving public transport links to other local stations. It does not include a detailed assessment of these alternative options, but states that “there may be a case for improved bus connections regardless of the case for Devizes Gateway, recognizing that bus and rail are often serving different types of market”. It is essential that the next, much more comprehensive study, the Outline Business Case, includes such a detailed assessment. You can buy a lot of buses for £48m!
The public transport network in Wiltshire is very much an ad hoc creation. So far as I know there has never been a comprehensive review of services and routes. This would be difficult in terms of current legislation, even ignoring Swindon and Bath as important destinations beyond the County Boundary. It does not seem to be under consideration in the Bus Service Improvement Plan (link) or in the county wide Local Transport Plan (link)
One option would be to move to a model based on fast interurban links, supplemented by town-based services in the main urban areas and a DRT ‘cloud’ in the rural areas surrounding. Such an approach could be used to improve access to local stations, perhaps even direct links between stations if that were shown to enhance services as part of an onward journey. I intend to write about this separately, looking at the Council’s Bus Service Improvement Plan as the focus.
Other improvements to the local rail network should also be considered. Wilton and Corsham Stations appear to be moving to the SOC stage, but there are other possibilities. For example the service running from Swindon through Melksham goes on through Westbury and beyond. There is a reference in the Atkins report to improvements at Westbury which may enable an improved service to Bath and Bristol. This may have an impact on the benefits available to the Devizes project.
Melksham and Trowbridge stations are also reasonably accessible from Devizes, but direct connections to Bath are not possible from Melksham. The plan below, taken from the Atkins report shows an unused link at Staverton which would enable such a route, making a direct service between Swindon and Bath possible via Melksham with onward links to Bristol and Cardiff. With such a link in place, access from Devizes would be quicker than travelling to Chippenham. The 1922 OS map shows more detail. See also google maps here.
Technicalities
Much of the report is highly technical, using data not easily available to the general public and modelling tools almost certainly unavailable. This means that these sections cannot be examined abd must be treated as ‘black boxes.’ This is undesirable, but it isn’t an easy matter to resolve. At a minimum however, the report should provide some explanation of the data used, its provenance and reliability alongside a description of the logic of the models used. Even though the project has moved on to the next stage this should still be made available. The same principles should apply to that second stage work.
Conclusions
- Base line assumptions in the report suggest a station would represent Poor Value for Money. However that conclusion is extremely sensitive to changes in assumptions, with sensitivity testing leading to results ranging between Very Poor and Very High BCR (Benefits to Cost Ratio).
- Technically it will be very challenging to find a path for a new service through the existing traffic on the line. Aspirations to grow freight traffic could have a significant impact in the future.
- There is much uncertainty over passenger numbers through the station generally, and leisure trips in particular. Leisure use will be the key to continued viability. Firmer data on expected inward leisure trips is essential. Securing and increasing those numbers would also require sustained marketing with associated revenue costs.
- Improved access would be largely confined to destinations E & W of Devizes on London-Exeter line. Improvements at Westbury may improve other journey times N-S, but generally access to destinations like Bath, Bristol, Swindon would involve increased journey times.
- Substantial improvements would be required to public transport in the Devizes area to maximise access to the Station. Improvements providing links to other local stations would also be beneficial. This could have significant revenue implications.
- Development of a station at Lydeway would lead to an increase in development pressure in the general area, but may also offer an opportunity for a different policy response with the possibility of relieving pressures elsewhere in Devizes.
- A separate document is required giving explanations of the data used, its provenance and reliability alongside a description of the logic of the models used in the report.
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